To summarize the happenings of the last 24 hours, and having read multiple announcements, summaries, and assessments of this historic turn of events, the best one that I have read, and the one I recommend everyone read as basic background is the summary posted by Dr. Jonathan Mirvis, International Director of the Florence Melton Adult Mini-School, as posted below...
Israel Update
11 October 2011
Breaking News: Gilad Shalit to Be Released
Dr Jonathan Mirvis
International Director of the Florence Melton Adult Mini-School, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem ------------
Two hours ago we received the exciting news that Gilad Shalit, after spending over five years in captivity in Gaza, is to be released. In this release Israel is demonstrating once again the high price she is prepared to pay for 'pidyon shvuim' - for the release of captives. One Jewish soldier will be exchanged for 1000 terrorists and prisoners. In his opening address to the Cabinet this evening, Prime Minister Netanyahu quoted the traditional saying that 'kol Yisrael arevim ze le'ze' - that all Jews are personally responsible for each other.
In this update we will outline the details of the agreement and thereafter give the background to the motivation for this agreement. It is important to note that this update is based on snippets of information that have been leaked and that the full story will only be complete in a few days.
According to reports released thus far the agreement was reached on Thursday between Hamas and the Israeli Government. This agreement was initialed by both sides this morning and thereafter Prime Minister Netanyahu invited Noam Shalit, Gilad's father, to his home to give him the news of Gilad's pending release. The Prime Minister spoke as well to Aviva and Gilad's grandfather, Tzvi, by phone. The Shalit family has been camping outside the Prime Minister's residence for over a year and thus Noam Shalit did not have far to go to receive this news.
According to first reports a total of 1000 terrorists and prisoners will be released. They will be released in two stages. At the first stage, 450 terrorists and prisoners will be released, after which Gilad will be transferred to Cairo where he will meet with his parents. Thereafter the second batch of 550 terrorists will be released and Gilad will fly home to Israel via Germany. Since this deal was negotiated by a German mediator with the strong support of the German Government, it is on German soil that Gilad will be officially released.
The terrorists and prisoners will be released as follows: One group will be released to the territories, a second group will be released to the Gaza Strip and a third group will be released to an unnamed country and this group will not be allowed access either to Gaza or the territories.
In agreeing to this deal Israel has created a precedent for releasing its captives which goes far beyond that which was negotiated with the Hizbollah in previous prisoner exchanges. For the first time an exchange will include terrorists who are serving multiple life sentences for the murder of thousands of Israelis. Until now Israel has refused to release terrorists with 'blood on their hands' and this exchange reflects a major change in policy. A second precedent is Israel's agreement to release terrorists who come from East Jerusalem and other parts of sovereign Israel. Until now Israel has maintained that since Israeli law governs these areas, those who have committed crimes are defined as murderers and not terrorists and cannot be included in such agreements.
Many commentators are trying to understand Israel's change of policy. Following is an attempt to answer this question.
During this past year there have been dramatic changes in the balance of power in the Middle East.
1. The Egyptian Government was overthrown and a weakened interim government is now in power south of Israel's borders. This Government is under severe pressure to adopt an anti-Israeli policy and there are calls in Egypt to renounce its Peace Treaty with Israel. Until now Egypt has played a major role in mediating between Israel and Hamas and its ability to do so in the future is seriously in question. Israel therefore felt that it is crucial now to take advantage of Egypt's mediation as in the future Egypt may not be in a position to mediate at all.
2. PLO President Abbas' position has been highly strengthened by his attempt to declare a Palestinian State at the United Nations. For the past five years Abbas has opposed the release of Shalit in the fear that it would strengthen Hamas. However, now that Abbas seems to have taken a stance which has infuriated the Israeli Government, Israel feels at liberty to negotiate with Hamas and indirectly enhance Hamas' standing in the Palestinian street and thereby increase the rivalry between Hamas and the PLO.
3. A key figure who is included on the release list is Mustafa Barghouti. Barghouti belongs to Abbas' PLO and was sentenced to five life sentences as a result of the murders he planned in the second Intifada. Barghouti speaks a perfect Hebrew, is highly charismatic and within the PLO presents the greatest political challenge to Abbas. This may yet be another Israeli attempt to unseat Abbas and open a new relationship with a potential Palestinian Government headed by Barghouti.
4. Israel feels that the Palestinian public in the territories has relinquished its armed struggle, and therefore the potential threat of potential terrorism will be counterbalanced by the strong feeling in the Palestinian street that the armed struggle is something of the past.
5. Netanyahu realizes that while this release will be condemned by many of the victims of terror it will have the widespread support of the Israeli population. He has been under major pressure from the "Release Shalit" movement, soldiers in uniform and hundreds of thousands of Shalit sympathizers. In taking this step he is taking it with the support of the Israeli public.
In this exchange it must be realized that Israel is taking a major gamble. Those who are released may create winds of change in the territories leading to a third Intifada. It has been claimed that it was the terrorists who were released in the 80's who were behind the first Intifada. Furthermore, this release could well be an incentive to kidnap soldiers in the future with the full knowledge that this is the best proven method for securing the release of terrorists. Hopefully this will not be the case.
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